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During this festive Christmas season, the crypto market comes alive with remarkable renewed optimism. Data from the Bitcoin derivatives markets suggest a high probability of the cryptocurrency queen reaching $105,000, driven by persistent bullish sentiment and favorable technical indicators.
The Bitcoin derivatives market is signaling strong optimism
Traders and analysts are closely watching the movements of Bitcoin, which is showing encouraging signs of recovery after correcting 14.5% from its all-time high of $108,275.
The monthly futures premium, currently 12% above the spot market, reflects a strong appetite for long positions. This configuration, well above the usual 5-10% neutral zone, also reflects institutional investors’ confidence in Bitcoin’s upward trajectory.
Bitcoin options reinforce this positive market outcome with a spread of just 2% between puts and calls, a level historically associated with phases of market expansion. This metric, closely watched by professionals, suggests that major market players are maintaining their bullish exposure despite recent volatility.
The Long/Short leverage ratio on OKX reaches remarkable levels with a 25x multiplier in favor of long positions. Although this level is significant, it remains below the threshold for excessive euphoria, usually found above 40x.
The macroeconomic environment supports the bullish thesis
The recovery in mainstream markets, epitomized by the S&P 500’s recovery over the Christmas holidays, creates a favorable context for risk assets such as Bitcoin. The rise in 10-year US Treasury yields, which rose to 4.59%, paradoxically reinforces bitcoin’s appeal as a safe haven against inflation.
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook, which now plans two rate cuts in 2025, helps maintain a favorable environment for digital assets. This position, while more conservative than initial expectations, continues to support the hypothesis of abundant liquidity in the medium term.
The 64% correlation level between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index highlights the increasing integration of cryptocurrencies into the traditional financial landscape while maintaining their diversification potential.
In short, the convergence of technical and fundamental indicators, along with Bitcoin’s resilience in the face of recent corrections, suggests that the $105,000 target is not only achievable, but could mark a new milestone in institutional adoption of the cryptocurrency.
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I am passionate about Bitcoin, I love exploring the twists and turns of blockchain and cryptocurrencies and sharing my discoveries with the community. My dream is to live in a world where privacy and financial freedom are guaranteed for everyone, and I firmly believe that Bitcoin is the tool that can make this possible.
DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY
The comments and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and should not be considered investment advice. Before making any investment decision, do your own research.